Ebola--5 Claims Experts Have Made Irresponsibly
It seems that anyone today that dares to make any pessimistic predictions about Ebola is bound to be attacked by angry know-it-all dissenters. This is especially true if the person looking into the crystal ball (for it must be admitted that much of what is being said about Ebola is, at best, educated guessing) is not a scientist of any kind.
Then again, perhaps these sensationalizing miscreants deserve these attacks—after all, how dare they dwell on worst-case scenarios! And, who, by the way, are they to comment on subjects that only scientists should be allowed to elaborate upon or examine?
Maybe it would be best to leave the evaluations to trained professionals and experts in the sciences. This sounds sensible until we hear these so-called experts making statements or rendering judgments tottering precipitously on mostly conjecture or not-totally-proven/established scientific facts. Some examples include:
i. “The recent outbreaks of Ebola are all definitely not airborne.” Actually, the most that can be said is that, at present, most cases of Ebola thus far are most likely not airborne based on what we know of viruses and of past outbreaks of Ebola; this is assuming, of course, that we are not dealing with totally new strains. Without formal clinical studies and on-going intensive serological (and other types) testing, though, one cannot say for certain; also, since several different types of organisms in different locations are involved, prematurely (before appropriate studies and testing occurs) saying that all of them are not airborne is, at best, educated guessing.
ii. “Both the US and Europe will not see the same types of deadly outbreaks seen in Africa thus far.” Yes, developed countries do have some advantages over these poor countries but, make no mistake: outbreaks serious enough to turn into epidemics are very possible in these better-equipped nations. AIDS and the often worsening rates of nosocomial infections (especially in regards to antibiotic-resistant bacteriological pathogens) have proven that developed countries can succumb to scenarios as tragic as those seen in poor countries. The only reason AIDS (in spite of having gotten out of control—in terms of our not being able to stop it from spreading) has not been more visibly devastating in developed countries is because of the use of antiretroviral agents. Just because we to some extent dodged the bullet with HIV, though, does not mean we will be as lucky with the next virus we allow to spread out of control.
iii. “Wearing hazmat suits and following recommended containment protocols guarantee Ebola infections will not occur.” First of all, it’s ludicrous to expect everyone to strictly abide by the best recommendations; to put it more bluntly, people have a tendency to ignore the best containment measures put in place. Some experts need to stop trivializing how dangerous these pathogens can be—even in the best case scenarios. The reality is that these measures do not convey 100% protection, especially if the devices are defective and the pathogens in question ultimately don’t follow expected pathogenicity, as well as anticipated modes of transmission (possibly due to mutation or the discovery of totally new organisms).
iv. “Healthcare workers in developed countries are well-prepared to deal with things like Ebola.” Actually, many of these health care workers have never dealt with anything as gruesome, painful and grotesque as Ebola (and most other hemorrhagic diseases). The failure of modern hospitals to properly control nosocomial infections is indication enough that, no, most ospitals are not fully prepared for the kind of devastation that Ebola could inflict in the worst case scenarios. When healthcare workers start developing the disease, how many of their colleagues will stick around to care for them? What about all those patients who will resist isolation measures? Even if hospital personnel perform perfectly, few healthcare facilities today are equipped to treat large numbers of affected patients—especially if quarantines and isolation are called for.
v. “Doctors in developed countries would know what to do if a massive hemorrhagic disease (whether it be Ebola, Marburg, Lassa, or Bolivian hemorrhagic fever) epidemic broke out in their respective communities.” Actually, some of these doctors will probably grab their families and run for cover (as some of them did during Katrina); others will get the disease and either die or be left unable to perform their duties for a while. Most doctors have received only a superficial training in epidemiology—especially as relates to rare third world diseases. There simply will not be enough epidemiologists to deal with any kind of large epidemic.
Conclusion
Claims made by people who have not done proper research, who fail to provide adequate references, or who based most if not all they said on pure speculation are, to put it mildly, dangerous. That is not to say, however, that people should not be allowed to voice personal concerns—as long as they clearly label (either as “fact” or “speculation”) the thoughts they unleash on an already frightened populace.
Non-scientists, however, are not the only ones you need to watch out for. Sometimes the very people who have training and education in the sciences also make outlandish or fact-unsupported attestations. When they do, they need to be challenged.
Sometimes they just word incorrectly what they mean to say but, at other times, they are simply wrong.
References
1. http://www.infowars.com/cdc-concerned-about-airborne-transmission-of-ebola-virus/
2. http://aun-tv.com/2014/09/if-ebola-is-not-airborne...
3. http://scienceblogs.com/aetiology/2014/08/03/are-w...
4. http://www.thedailysheeple.com/experts-say-airborn...
5. http://www.fairfaxunderground.com/forum/read.php?4...
6. http://www.latimes.com/world/africa/la-fg-ebola-ti...
7. http://www.discovery.com/tv-shows/curiosity/topics...
8. http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2014/10/14...
9. http://www.pbs.org/newshour/rundown/hospitals-work...
10. http://www.foxnews.com/opinion/2014/08/04/many-us-...
11. http://www.cnn.com/video/data/2.0/video/us/2014/10...
