Ebola: The Good & the Bad News
It may surprise some people to know that there is anything along the lines of “good news” in relation to Ebola but that is, strangely, the case. Actually, disasters sometimes bring benefits which people may appreciate only after deep introspection; then again, there are those who feel guilty at recognizing any such “benefits” out of fear that they will be accused of being insensitive.
On the other hand, not everyone will immediately see all the “bad news” behind looming disasters. Disasters, after all, have a funny way of not fully revealing (at least at the beginning) their devastation, especially in regards to subtle or long-term ramifications. At this time, people not presently living in Africa see Ebola only as a serious potential threat. They may better understand the situation, however, if they were to dwell on these points:
The Bad News
a. Ebola is likely to continue to spread in Africa; it may expand into other third world areas (like India)--if so, many more deaths will be seen.
b. Developed countries will likely see more sporadic (at best) cases of the disease.
c. Developed countries will have difficulty handling Ebola if there is a large number of outbreaks—this is especially true if epidemic proportions are reached.
d. No healthcare system is adequately prepared for what any highly infectious and contagious pandemic could inflict—were one to develop in the future.
e. Developed countries have very little experience managing hemorrhagic fever diseases.
f. We have yet to develop (and, more importantly, adequately implement) disease containment protocols/tools that people will be glad to accept and follow. In fact, massive resistance to such measures is unavoidable—which is why, if things get out of control, force is usually necessary to glean full cooperation.
g. There is yet no approved medicine or vaccine for Ebola; even if we develop such, they may not work with all strains or types of hemorrhagic disease pathogens in existence. Also, these may not come in time to save any already infected (especially in advanced stages) victims.
h. These Ebola strains appear to be very contagious and infectious—almost as much as airborne diseases.
i. The mortality rates even in best case scenarios are unacceptably high—about 57%; for untreated patients in worst case scenarios, the rates come close to 100%.
j. Although unlikely, these Ebola strains can mutate (or have already—in other words, they may not be the same ones seen in the 70s and 80s) into something more dangerous, and may pose transmission issues/problems not yet identified/recognized by experts.
The Good News
a. The incidence, prevalence and mortality rates are still relatively small, within the context of past epidemics and pandemics involving other pathogens
a. Efforts are under way to create medicines and vaccines that may curtail (if not eliminate) these viruses’ virulence.
b. None of the Ebola pathogens (albeit in the same family) has been officially identified as being airborne—yet.
c. Viruses don’t appear to change their mode of transmission too easily or often (if at all); this may, consequently, greatly reduce the chance of dogs transmitting the virus (since they can carry it) or the viruses becoming airborne.
d. Developed countries are better prepared to deal with Ebola than third world countries—in equipment, tools, training, etc.
e. Several countries are working hard to help Africa (the main source of the problem right now) better manage its outbreaks. This should help reduce incidence and mortality rates.
f. Ebola is being studied now more closely than ever before; this should help determine courses of action against it.
g. Communities, cities, states and countries are taking measures to respond to these viruses when and if they become a problem; in theory, this should prepare people to deal appropriately with any outbreaks or epidemics.
h. These viruses are so rapacious that they may kill their victims too fast for further conquest—in other words, their extreme virulence may actually work in our favor. In ideal situations (for viral survival), viruses don’t want to kill all hosts too fast; in fact, they prefer to kill just enough hosts to keep the disease going (thus replicating indefinitely).
i. If communities, healthcare facilities and countries do what is necessary (which may call for forced isolation and quarantining), even a major Ebola epidemic/pandemic could be controlled. Although many people would die, the virus can eventually be stopped (especially if experimental medicines and vaccines are finally brought into use).
j. These Ebola outbreaks can be the catalysts for improved public health measures across the board in both developed and underdeveloped countries. Maybe it will take something as deadly as Ebola to convince healthcare workers (and other key players) that they must abide at all times by proper hygiene and disease containment healthcare facility protocols.
Conclusion
Ironically, the bad news in a situation is often a much more effective catalyst when it comes to bringing about adequate beneficial change. That may not be reason enough to celebrate the bad news but it can be a reason to profit from it, if such is inevitable.
The good news, on the other hand, should give people a certain sense of peace and tranquility. When it comes to something as horrific as Ebola, you cannot ask for too much of those things!
Copyright, 2014. Fred Fletcher. All rights reserved.
References
2. http://www.npr.org/2014/08/19/341542600/rare-good-...
3. http://www.irinnews.org/report/100674/ebola-and-th...
4. http://www.bbc.com/news/health-29060239
5. http://www.cnn.com/2014/10/03/health/ebola-nbc-ash...
6. http://www.cnn.com/2014/10/13/health/ebola-cdc/ind...
